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Market timing signals for stock and bond markets with integrated risk index ratings

Bear market 2000 - 2002

On this page you will find charts, which are illustrating the trends of important indicators during the bear market 2000 - 2002. Other references to this bear market are "dot-com bubble burst" and "irrational exuberance".

An era of exuberant speculation in dot-com companies, dot-com startup bankruptcies and corporate accounting scandals lead to one of the longest declines of the post-WWII era.

Bear market 2000 - 2002 - Overview

On 03/24/2000, the S&P 500 Index reached a high of 1552.87 index points at market close before declining to a low print of 768.63 points on 10/10/2002. The S&P 500 Index lost 50.50% during this bear market.

In spring 2003 the low was tested once again and the bear market came to an end.

Bear market 2000 - 2002

S&P 500 Index

S&P 500 Index

Some possible reasons for the bear market 2000 - 2002

- Greed or so-called "Irrational Exuberance" - copyright by Alan Greenspan, who used this expression in the course of his speech "The Challenge of Central Banking in a Democratic Society" at the Annual Dinner and Francis Boyer Lecture of The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, Washington, D.C. on 5th of December 1996: "But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan over the past decade?"

- Significant deteriorating "market breadth", such as the advance-decline-Line, because of non-confirmation of new all-time highs of stock index.

- Rapidly declining dividend yield

- High price/earnings ratio (P/E)

- weak market breadth (e.g. advance-decline line and new highs versus new lows)

Bear market 2000 - key stock market indicators

Implied volatility - S&P 100 Index - CBOE VIX

S&P 100 Index - Implied volatility

US Treasury Bills

US treasury bills 3 months
US treasury bonds yield - 30 years

Treasury bonds

US treasury bond futures

US T-Bond futures CME
US Dollar Index futures ICE

US Dollar

Price-earnings-ratio (P/E ratio)

Price/earnings ratio (P/E) of S&P 500 stocks
Dividend yield of S&P 500 stocks

Dividend yield

Market breadth - advance decline line

Advance decline line NYSE stocks - market breadth
New highs new lows NYSE stocks - market breadth

Market breadth - new high and new lows

Commodities price index

Commodities price index - CRB index futures
Gold price

Gold price

Crude oil price

Crude Oil futures NYMEX

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