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Weekly Market Timing Update - 2019/07on
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42 investment signals
20 market risk ratings
Global bond risk remains at a low-risk reading
Current Global Bond Market Risk
5% low risk
The Global Bond Market Risk Index (GBMRI) remains at a low-risk reading. The GBMRI increases to 5%. Last week the GBMRI reached a level of 2% (low risk).
The Regional Bond Market Risk Sub Index (RBMRSI) for Latin America is showing the best performance with a low-risk reading of 0%. Last week this index was at 0% (low risk).
On the contrary, the RBMRSI for the Asia-Pacific region is showing the least positive performance with a low-risk reading of 7%. Last week this index was at 0% (low risk).
Our bond market timing strategy remains invested in all monitored government bond markets.
Global stock risk remains at a medium risk level
The Global Stock Market Risk Index (GSMRI) remains at a medium risk reading. The GSMRI decreases to 40%. Last week the GSMRI reached a medium risk level of 45%.
The Regional Stock Market Risk Sub Index (RSMRSI) for the EAFE region (Europe, Australasia, and the Far East), measuring the aggregated potential market risk of developed stock markets outside of the US and Canada, is showing the best performance, indicating a new low-risk reading of 28%. Last week this index was at 50% (medium risk).
On the contrary, the RSMRSI for the Middle East and North Africa is indicating the least positive reading at a medium risk level of 40%. Last week this index was at 48% (medium risk).
All other Regional Stock Market Risk Sub Indices are showing new low-risk readings.
US stock market risk decreases to a new low-risk level of 29% (last week: 44%, medium risk). US tech stock risk closes at a new low-risk reading of 27% (last week: 42%, medium risk).
There has been no change regarding the tracked stock market trading signals compared to last week. Our market timing strategies still favor to stay invested in all monitored stock markets.
Current Global Stock Market Risk
40% medium risk
Current US Stock Market Risk
29% low risk
US Dollar risk changes to a new low-risk reading
Current US Dollar Risk
35% low risk
The Global US Dollar Risk Index (GUSDRI) changes to a new low-risk level. The GUSDRI closes at 35%. Last week the GUSDRI reached a medium risk level of 46%.
Our FX, bond, and stock market risk ratings have been created to indicate the potential risk of investments on an aggregated basis in percentage points. A low percentage reading suggests a positive and rather low-risk environment for the respective market.
Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% should indicate a relatively high-risk and unfavorable market environment.
More information about our intuitive risk ratings and how they work at Market Risk Ratings - How it works.
"Our goal is to avoid adverse financial impacts for our customers.
We are passionate about analyzing vast amounts of financial market data to detect and assess market risk anomalies for our newsletter subscribers.
We genuinely believe in our unique insight and our approach of combining market timing with risk ratings to erase the guesswork for our clients".
- Wolfgang, founder -