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Weekly Market Timing Update - 2018/49on
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42 investment signals
20 market risk ratings
Global bond risk remains at a low-risk reading
The Global Bond Market Risk Index (GBMRI) remains at a low-risk reading. The GBMRI decreases to 5%. Last week the GBMRI reached a level of 12% (low risk).
The Regional Bond Market Risk Sub Index (RBMRSI) for the US, Canada and Western Europe is showing the best performance with a low-risk reading of 0%. Last week this index was at 13% (low risk).
On the contrary, the RBMRSI for Latin America is showing the least positive performance with a medium risk reading of 50%. Last week this index was at 50% (medium risk).
Our bond market timing strategy remains invested in all monitored government bond markets.
Current Global Bond Market Risk
5% low risk
Global stock risk changes to a new high-risk level
The Global Stock Market Risk Index (GSMRI) remains at a high-risk reading. The GSMRI increases to 68%. Last week the GSMRI reached a high-risk level of 60%.
The Regional Stock Market Risk Sub Index (RSMRSI) for the Middle East and North Africa is showing the best performance, indicating a new high-risk reading of 68%. Last week this index was at 59% (medium risk).
On the contrary, the RSMRSI for the EAFE region (Europe, Australasia, and the Far East), measuring the aggregated potential market risk of developed stock markets outside of the US and Canada, is indicating the least positive reading at a high-risk level of 82%. Last week this index was at 64% (high risk).
All other Regional Stock Market Risk Sub Indices are showing high-risk readings.
US stock market risk jumps to a new high-risk level of 78% (last week: 54%, medium risk). US tech stock risk closes at a new high-risk reading of 79% (last week: 52%, medium risk).
Currently, two out of three exit market timing signals are active. Consequently, our stock market timing strategy favors staying out of the US and global stock markets.
Current Global Stock Market Risk
68% high risk
Current US Stock Market Risk
78% high risk
US Dollar risk remains at low risk
The Global US Dollar Risk Index (GUSDRI) remains at a low-risk level. The GUSDRI decreases to 23%. Last week the GUSDRI reached a low-risk level of 27%.
Current US Dollar Risk
23% low risk
Our FX, bond, and stock market risk ratings have been created to indicate the potential risk of investments on an aggregated basis in percentage points. A low percentage reading suggests a positive and rather low-risk environment for the respective market.
Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% should indicate a relatively high-risk and unfavorable market environment.
More information about our intuitive risk ratings and how they work at Market Risk Ratings - How it works.
"Our goal is to avoid adverse financial impacts for our customers.
We are passionate about analyzing vast amounts of financial market data to detect and assess market risk anomalies for our newsletter subscribers.
We genuinely believe in our unique insight and our approach of combining market timing with risk ratings to erase the guesswork for our clients".
- Wolfgang, founder -