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Weekly Market Timing Update - 2018/42on
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42 investment signals
20 market risk ratings
Bond market - Global bond risk remains at high risk
The Global Bond Market Risk Index (GBMRI) remains at a high-risk reading. The GBMRI decreases to 80%. Last week the GBMRI reached a level of 88% (high risk).
The Regional Bond Market Risk Sub Index (RBMRSI) for Latin America is showing the best performance with a medium risk reading of 50%. Last week this index was at 50% (medium risk).
On the contrary, the RBMRSI for the US, Canada, and Western Europe is showing the least positive performance with a high-risk reading of 98%. Last week this index was at 100% (high risk).
No new bond market timing signal. The bond market timing strategy is still favoring to stay out of all monitored government bond markets.
Current Global Bond Market Risk
80% high risk
Stock market - Global stock risk remains at high risk
The Global Stock Market Risk Index (GSMRI) remains at a high-risk reading. The GSMRI increases to 80%. Last week the GSMRI reached a high-risk level of 78%.
The Regional Stock Market Risk Sub Index (RSMRSI) for Latin America is showing the best performance, indicating a high-risk reading of 77%. Last week this index was at 71% (high risk).
On the contrary, the RSMRSI for the EAFE region (Europe, Australasia and the Far East), measuring the aggregated potential market risk of developed stock markets outside of the US and Canada, is indicating the least positive reading at a high-risk level of 88%. Last week this index was at 88% (high risk).
All other Regional Stock Market Risk Sub Indices are showing high-risk readings.
US stock market risk decreases to a high-risk level of 80% (last week: 83%, high risk). US tech stock risk sinks to a high-risk reading of 81% (last week: 83%, high risk).
Currently, all three exit market timing signals are active. Consequently, our stock market timing strategy is still favoring to stay out of all global stock markets.
Current Global Stock Market Risk
80% high risk
Current US Stock Market Risk
80% medium risk
Foreign exchange (FX) - US Dollar risk remains at low risk
The Global US Dollar Risk Index (GUSDRI) remains at a low-risk level. The GUSDRI decreases to 8%. Last week the GUSDRI reached a low-risk level of 27%.
Current US Dollar Risk
8% low risk
Our FX, bond, and stock market risk ratings have been created to indicate the potential risk of investments on an aggregated basis in percentage points. A low percentage reading suggests a positive and rather low-risk environment for the respective market.
Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% should indicate a relatively high-risk and unfavorable market environment.
More information about our intuitive risk ratings and how they work at Market Risk Ratings - How it works.
"Our goal is to avoid adverse financial impacts for our customers.
We are passionate about analyzing vast amounts of financial market data to detect and assess market risk anomalies for our newsletter subscribers.
We genuinely believe in our unique insight and our approach of combining market timing with risk ratings to erase the guesswork for our clients".
- Wolfgang, founder -