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Weekly Market Timing Update - 2018/40on
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42 investment signals
20 market risk ratings
Global bond risk remains at high risk
The Global Bond Market Risk Index (GBMRI) remains at a high-risk reading. The GBMRI increases to 90%. Last week the GBMRI reached a level of 83% (high risk).
The Regional Bond Market Risk Sub Index (RBMRSI) for Latin America is showing the best performance with a medium risk reading of 50%. Last week this index was at 75% (high risk).
On the contrary, the RBMRSI for the US, Canada, and Western Europe is showing the least positive performance with a high-risk reading of 100%. Last week this index was at 83% (high risk).
No new bond market timing signal. The bond market timing strategy is still favoring to stay out of all monitored government bond markets.
Current Global Bond Market Risk
90% high risk
Global stock risk changes to high risk
The Global Stock Market Risk Index (GSMRI) changes from a medium to a high-risk reading. The GSMRI increases to 62%. Last week the GSMRI reached a medium risk level of 43%.
The Regional Stock Market Risk Sub Index (RSMRSI) for Latin America is showing the best performance, indicating a medium risk reading of 59%. Last week this index was at 36% (low risk).
On the contrary, the RSMRSI for the Asia-Pacific region is indicating the least positive reading at a high-risk level of 69%. Last week this index was at 42% (medium risk).
All other Regional Stock Market Risk Sub Indices are showing high-risk readings.
US stock market risk closes at a medium risk level of 54% (last week: 40%, medium risk). US tech stock risk increases to a new medium risk reading of 56% (last week: 37%, low risk).
Currently, all three exit market timing signals are active. Consequently, our stock market timing strategy is issuing a new major sell signal for all global stock markets.
Current Global Stock Market Risk
62% high risk
Current US Stock Market Risk
54% medium risk
US Dollar risk remains at low risk
The Global US Dollar Risk Index (GUSDRI) remains at a low-risk level. The GUSDRI remains unchanged at 27%. Last week the GUSDRI reached a low-risk level of 27%.
Current US Dollar Risk
27% low risk
Our FX, bond, and stock market risk ratings have been created to indicate the potential risk of investments on an aggregated basis in percentage points. A low percentage reading suggests a positive and rather low-risk environment for the respective market.
Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% should indicate a relatively high-risk and unfavorable market environment.
More information about our intuitive risk ratings and how they work at Market Risk Ratings - How it works.
"Our goal is to avoid adverse financial impacts for our customers.
We are passionate about analyzing vast amounts of financial market data to detect and assess market risk anomalies for our newsletter subscribers.
We genuinely believe in our unique insight and our approach of combining market timing with risk ratings to erase the guesswork for our clients".
- Wolfgang, founder -