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Weekly Market Timing Update - 2018/36on
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42 investment signals
20 market risk ratings
Global bond risk changes to high risk
Current Global Bond Market Risk
65% high risk
The Global Bond Market Risk Index (GBMRI) changes from a medium risk to a high risk reading. The GBMRI jumps to 65%. Last week the GBMRI reached a level of 44% (medium risk).
The Regional Bond Market Risk Sub Index (RBMRSI) for the Asia-Pacific region is showing the best performance with a low risk reading of 32%. Last week this index was at 32% (low risk).
On the contrary, the RBMRSI for Latin America is showing the least positive performance with a high risk reading of 100%. Last week this index was at 100% (high risk).
The bond market timing strategy is issuing new sell signals for the US, Canadian and UK government bond markets.
Global stock risk changes to high risk
The Global Stock Market Risk Index (GSMRI) changes from a medium risk to a high risk reading. The GSMRI increases to 70%. Last week the GSMRI reached a medium risk level of 52%.
The Regional Stock Market Risk Sub Index (RSMRSI) for the Middle East/North African region is showing the best performance, indicating a high risk reading of 64%. Last week this index was at 52% (medium risk).
On the contrary, the RSMRSI for the African region is indicating the least positive reading at a high risk level of 82%. Last week this index was at 61% (high risk).
All other Regional Stock Market Risk Sub Indices are showing high risk readings.
US stock market risk changes from a medium risk to a high risk level of 62% (last week: 47%; medium risk). US tech stock risk increases to a high risk reading of 66% (last week: 46%; medium risk).
The market timing signals for all monitored stock markets remain unchanged compared to last week.
Currently there are two (out of three) exit timing signals active. Consequently, a small deterioration of internal market strength indicators would trigger a new global stock market sell signal.
Our stock market timing strategy is still favoring investments in global stock markets.
Current Global Stock Market Risk
70% high risk
Current US Stock Market Risk
62% medium risk
US Dollar risk remains at low risk
Current US Dollar Risk
19% low risk
The Global US Dollar Risk Index (GUSDRI) finished at a low-risk level of 19%.
Our FX, bond, and stock market risk ratings have been created to indicate the potential risk of investments on an aggregated basis in percentage points. A low percentage reading suggests a positive and rather low-risk environment for the respective market.
Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% should indicate a relatively high-risk and unfavorable market environment.
More information about our intuitive risk ratings and how they work at Market Risk Ratings - How it works.
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We are passionate about analyzing vast amounts of financial market data to detect and assess market risk anomalies for our newsletter subscribers.
We genuinely believe in our unique insight and our approach of combining market timing with risk ratings to erase the guesswork for our clients".
- Wolfgang, founder -