US stock market risk: 81% (high risk) - 12/14/18 - CLICK HERE to get updates!

Weekly Market Timing Update - 2018/48

Bond market - Global bond risk remains at a low-risk reading

Current Global Bond Market Risk
12% low risk

The Global Bond Market Risk Index (GBMRI) remains at a low-risk reading. The GBMRI decreases to 12%. Last week the GBMRI reached a level of 37% (low risk).

The Regional Bond Market Risk Sub Index (RBMRSI) for the Asia-Pacific region is showing the best performance with a low-risk reading of 0%. Last week this index was at 35% (low risk).

On the contrary, the RBMRSI for Latin America is showing the least positive performance with a medium risk reading of 50%. Last week this index was at 50% (medium risk).

Our bond market timing strategy remains invested in all monitored government bond markets.

Stock market - Global stock risk changes to a new medium risk level

The Global Stock Market Risk Index (GSMRI) remains at a high-risk reading. The GSMRI decreases to 60%. Last week the GSMRI reached a high-risk level of 79%.

The Regional Stock Market Risk Sub Index (RSMRSI) for the Asia-Pacific region is showing the best performance, indicating a new medium risk reading of 59%. Last week this index was at 82% (high risk).

On the contrary, the RSMRSI for the African region is indicating the least positive reading at a high-risk level of 72%. Last week this index was at 90% (high risk).

All other Regional Stock Market Risk Sub Indices are showing either medium risk or high-risk readings.

US stock market risk sinks to a new medium risk level of 54% (last week: 77%, high risk). US tech stock risk closes at a new medium risk reading of 52% (last week: 78%, high risk).

Currently, all three exit market timing signals are active. Consequently, our stock market timing strategy favors staying out of the US and global stock markets.

Current Global Stock Market Risk
60% high risk

Current US Stock Market Risk
54% medium risk

Foreign exchange (FX) - US Dollar risk remains at low risk

Current US Dollar Risk
27% low risk

The Global US Dollar Risk Index (GUSDRI) remains at a low-risk level. The GUSDRI increases to 27%. Last week the GUSDRI reached a low-risk level of 19%.

Please note that a risk index level equal to or above 60% is indicating a somewhat high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

More information about our intuitive risk indices and how they work at Market Risk Index - How it works.

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