US stock market risk: 60% (high risk) - 11/16/18 - CLICK to get updates!

Weekly Market Timing Update - 2018/43

Bond market - Global bond risk changes to medium risk

Current Global Bond Market Risk
48% medium risk

The Global Bond Market Risk Index (GBMRI) changes to a medium risk reading. The GBMRI drops to 48%. Last week the GBMRI reached a level of 80% (high risk).

The Regional Bond Market Risk Sub Index (RBMRSI) for the Asia-Pacific region is showing the best performance with a low-risk reading of 29%. Last week this index was at 57% (medium risk).

On the contrary, the RBMRSI for the US, Canada, and Western Europe is showing the least positive performance with a medium risk reading of 58%. Last week this index was at 98% (high risk).

Our bond market timing strategy is issuing new buy signals for six government bond markets.

Stock market - Global stock risk remains at high risk

The Global Stock Market Risk Index (GSMRI) remains at a high-risk reading. The GSMRI increases to 81%. Last week the GSMRI reached a high-risk level of 80%.

The Regional Stock Market Risk Sub Index (RSMRSI) for Eastern Europe is showing the best performance, indicating a high-risk reading of 80%. Last week this index was at 77% (high risk).

On the contrary, the RSMRSI for the EAFE region (Europe, Australasia and the Far East), measuring the aggregated potential market risk of developed stock markets outside of the US and Canada, is indicating the least positive reading at a high-risk level of 91%. Last week this index was at 88% (high risk).

All other Regional Stock Market Risk Sub Indices are showing high-risk readings.

US stock market risk increases to a high-risk level of 85% (last week: 80%, high risk). US tech stock risk rises to a high-risk reading of 86% (last week: 81%, high risk).

Currently, all three exit market timing signals are active. Consequently, our stock market timing strategy is still favoring to stay out of all global stock markets.

Current Global Stock Market Risk
81% high risk

Current US Stock Market Risk
85% medium risk

Foreign exchange (FX) - US Dollar risk remains at low risk

Current US Dollar Risk
4% low risk

The Global US Dollar Risk Index (GUSDRI) remains at a low-risk level. The GUSDRI decreases to 4%. Last week the GUSDRI reached a low-risk level of 8%.


Please note that a risk index level equal to or above 60% is indicating a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

More information about our intuitive risk indices and how they work at Market Risk Index - How it works.


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