Weekly Market Timing Update - 2018/40
Bond market - Global bond risk remains at high risk
The Global Bond Market Risk Index (GBMRI) remains at a high-risk reading. The GBMRI increases to 90%. Last week the GBMRI reached a level of 83% (high risk).
The Regional Bond Market Risk Sub Index (RBMRSI) for Latin America is showing the best performance with a medium risk reading of 50%. Last week this index was at 75% (high risk).
On the contrary, the RBMRSI for the US, Canada, and Western Europe is showing the least positive performance with a high-risk reading of 100%. Last week this index was at 83% (high risk).
No new bond market timing signal. The bond market timing strategy is still favoring to stay out of all monitored government bond markets.
Stock market - Global stock risk changes to high risk
The Global Stock Market Risk Index (GSMRI) changes from a medium to a high-risk reading. The GSMRI increases to 62%. Last week the GSMRI reached a medium risk level of 43%.
The Regional Stock Market Risk Sub Index (RSMRSI) for Latin America is showing the best performance, indicating a medium risk reading of 59%. Last week this index was at 36% (low risk).
On the contrary, the RSMRSI for the Asia-Pacific region is indicating the least positive reading at a high-risk level of 69%. Last week this index was at 42% (medium risk).
All other Regional Stock Market Risk Sub Indices are showing high-risk readings.
US stock market risk closes at a medium risk level of 54% (last week: 40%, medium risk). US tech stock risk increases to a new medium risk reading of 56% (last week: 37%, low risk).
Currently, all three exit market timing signals are active. Consequently, our stock market timing strategy is issuing a new major sell signal for all global stock markets.
Foreign exchange (FX) - US Dollar risk remains at low risk
Please note that a risk index level equal or above 60% is indicating a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.
More information our intuitive risk indices and how they work at Market Risk Index - How it works.