Weekly Market Timing Update - 2018/36
Bond market - Global bond risk changes to high risk
The Global Bond Market Risk Index (GBMRI) changes from a medium risk to a high risk reading. The GBMRI jumps to 65%. Last week the GBMRI reached a level of 44% (medium risk).
The Regional Bond Market Risk Sub Index (RBMRSI) for the Asia-Pacific region is showing the best performance with a low risk reading of 32%. Last week this index was at 32% (low risk).
On the contrary, the RBMRSI for Latin America is showing the least positive performance with a high risk reading of 100%. Last week this index was at 100% (high risk).
The bond market timing strategy is issuing new sell signals for the US, Canadian and UK government bond markets.
Stock market - Global stock risk changes to high risk
The Global Stock Market Risk Index (GSMRI) changes from a medium risk to a high risk reading. The GSMRI increases to 70%. Last week the GSMRI reached a medium risk level of 52%.
The Regional Stock Market Risk Sub Index (RSMRSI) for the Middle East/North African region is showing the best performance, indicating a high risk reading of 64%. Last week this index was at 52% (medium risk).
On the contrary, the RSMRSI for the African region is indicating the least positive reading at a high risk level of 82%. Last week this index was at 61% (high risk).
All other Regional Stock Market Risk Sub Indices are showing high risk readings.
US stock market risk changes from a medium risk to a high risk level of 62% (last week: 47%; medium risk). US tech stock risk increases to a high risk reading of 66% (last week: 46%; medium risk).
The market timing signals for all monitored stock markets remain unchanged compared to last week.
Currently there are two (out of three) exit timing signals active. Consequently, a small deterioration of internal market strength indicators would trigger a new global stock market sell signal.
Our stock market timing strategy is still favoring investments in global stock markets.
Foreign exchange (FX) - US Dollar risk remains at low risk
Please note that a risk index level equal or above 60% is indicating a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.
More information our intuitive risk indices and how they work at Market Risk Index - How it works.