US stock market risk: 53% (medium risk) - CLICK here for more details!

Weekly Market Timing Update - 2018/36

Bond market - Global bond risk changes to high risk

Current Global Bond Market Risk
65% high risk

The Global Bond Market Risk Index (GBMRI) changes from a medium risk to a high risk reading. The GBMRI jumps to 65%. Last week the GBMRI reached a level of 44% (medium risk).

The Regional Bond Market Risk Sub Index (RBMRSI) for the Asia-Pacific region is showing the best performance with a low risk reading of 32%. Last week this index was at 32% (low risk).

On the contrary, the RBMRSI for Latin America is showing the least positive performance with a high risk reading of 100%. Last week this index was at 100% (high risk).

The bond market timing strategy is issuing new sell signals for the US, Canadian and UK government bond markets.

Stock market - Global stock risk changes to high risk

The Global Stock Market Risk Index (GSMRI) changes from a medium risk to a high risk reading. The GSMRI increases to 70%. Last week the GSMRI reached a medium risk level of 52%.

The Regional Stock Market Risk Sub Index (RSMRSI) for the Middle East/North African region is showing the best performance, indicating a high risk reading of 64%. Last week this index was at 52% (medium risk).

On the contrary, the RSMRSI for the African region is indicating the least positive reading at a high risk level of 82%. Last week this index was at 61% (high risk).

All other Regional Stock Market Risk Sub Indices are showing high risk readings.

US stock market risk changes from a medium risk to a high risk level of 62% (last week: 47%; medium risk). US tech stock risk increases to a high risk reading of 66% (last week: 46%; medium risk).

The market timing signals for all monitored stock markets remain unchanged compared to last week.

Currently there are two (out of three) exit timing signals active. Consequently, a small deterioration of internal market strength indicators would trigger a new global stock market sell signal.

Our stock market timing strategy is still favoring investments in global stock markets.

Current Global Stock Market Risk
70% high risk

Current US Stock Market Risk
62% medium risk

Foreign exchange (FX) - US Dollar risk remains at low risk

Current US Dollar Risk
19% low risk

The Global US Dollar Risk Index (GUSDRI) remains at a low risk level. The GUSDRI increases to 19%. Last week the GUSDRI reached a low risk level of 15%.


Please note that a risk index level equal or above 60% is indicating a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

More information our intuitive risk indices and how they work at Market Risk Index - How it works.