Weekly Market Timing Update - 2018/35
Bond market - Global bond risk changes to medium risk
The Global Bond Market Risk Index (GBMRI) changes from a low risk to a medium risk reading. The GBMRI increases to 44%. Last week the GBMRI reached a level of 38% (low risk).
The Regional Bond Market Risk Sub Index (RBMRSI) for the Asia-Pacific region is showing the best performance with a low risk reading of 32%. Last week this index was at 25% (low risk).
On the contrary, the RBMRSI for Latin America is showing the least positive performance with a high risk reading of 100%. Last week this index was at 100% (high risk).
Besides the Japanese government bond market, there are no exit signals active. Consequently, our bond market timing strategy is still favoring to stay invested in most of all monitored government bond markets.
Stock market - Global stock risk remains at medium risk
The Global Stock Market Risk Index (GSMRI) remains at a medium risk reading. The GSMRI decreases to 52%. Last week the GSMRI reached a medium risk level of 58%.
The Regional Stock Market Risk Sub Index (RSMRSI) for the Asia-Pacific region is showing the best performance, indicating a medium risk reading of 49%. Last week this index was at 56% (medium risk).
On the contrary, the RSMRSI for the African region is indicating the least positive reading at a high risk level of 61%. Last week this index was at 58% (medium risk).
All other Regional Stock Market Risk Sub Indices are showing medium risk readings.
US stock market risk remains at a medium risk level of 47% (last week: 48%). US tech stock risk stays at a medium risk reading of 46% (last week: 49%).
The market timing signals for all monitored stock markets remain unchanged compared to last week.
Currently there are two (out of three) exit timing signals active. Consequently, a small deterioration of internal market strength indicators would trigger a new global stock market sell signal.
Our stock market timing strategy is still favoring investments in global stock markets.
Foreign exchange (FX) - US Dollar risk remains at low risk
Please note that a risk index level equal or above 60% is indicating a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.
More information our intuitive risk indices and how they work at Market Risk Index - How it works.