US stock market risk: 53% (medium risk) - CLICK here for more details!

Weekly Market Timing Update - 2018/33

Bond market - Global bond risk remains at medium risk

Current Global Bond Market Risk
49% medium risk

The Global Bond Market Risk Index (GBMRI) remains at medium risk. The GBMRI drops to 49%. Last week the GBMRI reached a level of 50% (medium risk).

The Regional Bond Market Risk Sub Index (RBMRSI) for the Asia-Pacific region is showing the best performance with a medium risk reading of 43%. Last week this index was at 36% (low risk).

On the contrary, the RBMRSI for Latin America is showing the least positive performance with a high risk reading of 100%. Last week this index was at 75% (high risk).

Our bond market timing strategy is issuing a new buy signal for the US government bond market.

Stock market - Global stock risk changes to high risk

The Global Stock Market Risk Index (GSMRI) changes from a medium risk to a high risk reading. The GSMRI increases to 68% - a high risk reading. Last week the GSMRI reached a medium risk level of 50%.

The Regional Stock Market Risk Sub Index (RSMRSI) for the Middle East and North Africa is showing the best performance, indicating a high risk reading of 64%. Last week this index was at 47% (medium risk).

On the contrary, the RSMRSI for emerging stock markets is indicating the least positive reading at a high risk level of 71%. Last week this index was at 50% (medium risk).

All other Regional Stock Market Risk Sub Indices are showing high risk readings.

US stock market risk remains at a medium risk level of 57% (last week: 49%). US tech stock risk changes from a medium to a high risk reading of 62% (last week: 50%).

Our gold mining stocks risk benchmark indicates the risk of gold mining stocks investments on an aggregated basis at 100% (negative).

Our stock market timing strategy is still favoring investments in global stock markets.

Current Global Stock Market Risk
68% high risk

Current US Stock Market Risk
57% medium risk

Foreign exchange (FX) - US Dollar risk remains at low risk

Current US Dollar Risk
8% low risk

The Global US Dollar Risk Index (GUSDRI) remains at a low risk level. The US dollar is still showing strength against other major currencies. The GUSDRI decreases to 8%. Last week the GUSDRI reached a low risk level of 15%.

Please note that a risk index level equal or above 60% is indicating a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

More information our intuitive risk indices and how they work at Market Risk Index - How it works.