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Weekly Market Timing Update - 2018/32

Bond market - Global bond risk changes from negative to neutral

Current Global Bond Market Risk
50% neutral

The Global Bond Market Risk Index (GBMRI) changes from negative to neutral. The GBMRI drops to 50%. Last week the GBMRI reached a level of 69% (negative).

The Regional Bond Market Risk Sub Index (RBMRSI) for the Asia-Pacific region is showing the best performance with a positive reading of 36%. Last week this index was at 64% (negative).

On the contrary, the RBMRSI for Latin America is showing the least positive performance with a negative reading of 75%. Last week this index was at 75% (negative).

Our bond market timing strategy is issuing a new buy signal for the Australian government bond market.

Stock market - Global stock risk remains bullish

The Global Stock Market Risk Index (GSMRI) changes from positive to neutral. The GSMRI increases to 50% - a neutral reading. Last week the GSMRI reached a positive level of 39%.

The Regional Stock Market Risk Sub Index (RSMRSI) for the Middle East and North Africa is showing the best performance, indicating a neutral reading of 47%. Last week this index was at 37% (positive).

On the contrary, the RSMRSI for the EAFE region (Europe, Australasia and the Far East), measuring the aggregated potential market risk of developed stock markets outside of the US and Canada, is indicating the least positive reading at a neutral level of 56%. Last week this index was at 36% (positive).

All other Regional Stock Market Risk Sub Indices are showing neutral readings.

Our gold mining stocks risk benchmark indicates the risk of gold mining stocks investments on an aggregated basis at 81% (negative).

Our stock market timing strategy is still favoring investments in global stock markets.

Current Global Stock Market Risk
50% neutral

Current US Stock Market Risk
49% neutral

Foreign exchange (FX) - US Dollar risk remains positive

Current US Dollar Risk
15% positive

The Global US Dollar Risk Index (GUSDRI) remains positive. The US dollar is still showing strength against other major currencies. The GUSDRI increases to 15%. Last week the GUSDRI reached a positive level of 8%.

Please note that a risk index level equal or above 60% is indicating a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

More information our intuitive risk indices and how they work at Market Risk Index - How it works.