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Weekly Market Timing Update - 2018/31

Bond market - Global bond risk changes to negative

Global Bond market risk index

Current Global Bond Market Risk
69% negative

The Global Bond Market Risk Index (GBMRI) changes from neutral to negative. The GBMRI jumps to 69%. Last week the GBMRI reached a level of 55% (neutral).

The Regional Bond Market Risk Sub Index (RBMRSI) for the Asia-Pacific region is showing the best performance with a negative reading of 64%. Last week this index was at 46% (neutral).

On the contrary, the RBMRSI for Latin America is showing the least positive performance with a negative reading of 75%. Last week this index was at 75% (negative).

Our bond market timing strategy is issuing 4 new sell signals for the US, Canadian, Australian and Japanese government bond markets.

Stock market - Global stock risk remains bullish

US stock market risk remains positive at 35% (last week: 28%). US tech stock risk index is indicating a positive market environment at 36%.

The Global Stock Market Risk Index (GSMRI) remains positive. The GSMRI increases to 39% - a positive reading. Last week the GSMRI reached a positive level of 30%.

The Regional Stock Market Risk Sub Index (RSMRSI) for Latin America is showing the best performance, indicating a positive reading of 32%. Last week this index was at 25% (positive).

On the contrary, the RSMRSI for the Asia-Pacific region is indicating the least positive reading at a neutral level of 42%. Last week this index was at 30% (positive).

All other Regional Stock Market Risk Sub Indices are showing positive readings.

Our gold mining stocks risk benchmark indicates the risk of gold mining stocks investments on an aggregated basis at 88% (negative).

Our stock market timing strategy is still favoring investments in global stock markets.

Global stock market risk index

Current Global Stock Market Risk
39% positive

US stock market risk index

Current US Stock Market Risk
35% positive

Foreign exchange (FX) - US Dollar risk remains positive

US Dollar risk index

Current US Dollar Risk
8% positive

The Global US Dollar Risk Index (GUSDRI) remains positive. The US dollar is still showing strength against other major currencies. The GUSDRI decreases to 8%. Last week the GUSDRI reached a positive level of 12%.

Please note that a risk index level equal or above 60% is indicating a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

More information our intuitive risk indices and how they work at Market Risk Index - How it works.